Cultural differences

It’s an oft repeated maxim that you can’t believe the numbers that something like 80–90% of Russians support the war in Ukraine. I’ve heard all sorts of arguments about it being an authoritarian regime, not having access to high-quality information, or people being afraid to tell the truth to pollsters. And this is all claimed to be inevitable due to Russia’s Soviet past. I hear this argument from both Russians themselves and people without much expertise in the region.

Meanwhile, those with a deeper knowledge of the region take it as almost self-evident that Belarus entering the war would be the end of the Lukashenka regime. To quote the Economist:

Belarus is wary of being forced into a more active military role. Unlike Russians, Belarusians are anti-war. Their country’s ill-equipped troops would face a beating, and it would be subject to more European sanctions.

On any scale of autocracy and brutality, Belarus is far worse than Russia. And yet many ordinary Belarusians have taken enormous risks to protest against Lukashenka’s sham elections and sabotage Russian military activity in Belarus.

Looking at the massive support that the Russian war in Ukraine enjoys among ordinary Russians, Occam’s razor applies: the numbers are so high because that many people support the war.

This isn’t just Putin’s war.